The 2011-12 Michigan State men's hoops season is a paradox: It has the potential to be simultaneously successful beyond expectations and a tremendous letdown.
Not much was expected from this team, which lost so much talent and firepower (Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, Chris Allen, Korie Lucious) over the past season-and-half. Subtract ever-injured forward Delvon Roe and incoming freshman Dewan Anderson before this season started and you had the makings of a rebuilding year. If you'd have offered a winning conference record and a five seed in the NCAA Tournament prior to the season, I think most Spartan fans would have taken it. Throw in an All-America season from Draymond Green? Inconceivable.
Viewed from that angle, a shared Big Ten regular season title and a probably two seed in the NCAA Tourney is a wild success. We're playing with house money, men!
Except it suddenly looks like what could have been much more now has a chance to be much less. Losing the last two games of the season to fall into a three-way tie with those other two schools (What are they calling each other this week? "Ohio" and "Southern Michigan"?) stinks; you always want to step on the other guy's necks when the chance presents itself. But the bigger picture shows a team that could have been a true contender for a national title taking a huge injury blow on the eve of the postseason.
Branden Dawson's torn ACL (could it be the mere presence of Delvon Roe on the bench?) hurts more for next year than this one, I think. It absolutely hurts the depth for this season's tournament play, both Big Ten and NCAA. The games are all about guard play this time of year, and Dawson had finally figured out how to get a good defender against wing players. See what happened after he left the OSU loss – a 13-point lead becomes a loss.
I think Tom Izzo will do a good job papering over as best he can. Derrick Nix has been a revelation the last few weeks – the talent's been there, but not the conditioning or desire. Now that the big fella sees what he can accomplish, I think he gives the team a completely different dimension to work with, which will help Izzo's game-planning. And you know Green is going to play like a man possessed.
The key will be getting Brandan Kearney and Alex Guana to play some meaningful minutes. If Mike Kebler was OK being on the court for serious minutes last year, those two can more than hold their own. They're going to need Guana to provide another body and five fouls inside, and Kearney to spell Brendon Wood and Austin Thornton. I really think Kearney could step up big-time; the kid can play some tough D. Truthfully, this team was and is going to go as far as Keith Appling allows it to go. If the team defense can hold up and Appling regains his confidence on offense, things will be OK. If teams exploit Wood and Thornton the way OSU did yesterday, MSU's chances of a long tourney run will be smaller than LeBron James' man purse.
For next year, Dawson's injury could be really terrible. Maybe he'll be a fast healer and be able to contribute next year, but you can't count on that. Some ACL injuries are healing in 6-8 months now; others still take 12-14 months. And look at Delvon Roe's sad story. It might be better to just write off next year and have Dawson come back healthy as a sophomore in 2013-14. But that really takes a weapon away from the Spartans for next year, even with the three big frosh guns (Denzel Valentine, Gary Harris and Matt Costello) on the way.
But there will be time to worry about that in October. In the meantime, we'll know soon enough whether MSU's 2011-12 season was a success, a letdown, or both.